There is, of course, no single "cause" of the First World War. Every single action that occurs has literally thousands of causes, and each of those causes has a thousand causes, and so on. A person could rightly say that the First World War was caused by Henry VIII marrying Anne Boleyn, by the Hebrews taking Israel from the Canaanites, or by Theodore the Tyrannosaurus eating Ned the Triceratops. This makes assigning causes a bit messy, and people like such things to be neat and clear-cut. So people tend to look for causes immediately prior to the event, and declare those to be the immediate causes. But even then, there's never one immediate cause. There will often be one that is obvious, or is sensational, or that become famous. But there are always going to be a huge number of lesser known immediate causes.
In the case of the First World War, the most famous and familiar of these immediate causes was the assassination of a certain nobleman on the streets of
Sarajevo in 1914. While this was only
a cause and not
the cause, it makes a good point around which to tie some of the other causes and make them more apparent. So we'll look at this assassination and what it led to.
To see how events led from an assassination to a small limited war to a global war, you have to know what went on with five key players: the Kingdom of Serbia, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Empire of Russia, the German Empire, and France, as well as the interrelations between them all.
1. The Kingdom of Serbia was dominated by ethnic
Slavs, the
Serbs. For centuries it had been controlled by the
Ottoman Empire, but in the last half of the 1800's had managed to gain its independence. Serbia wanted to form a unified nation of all Slavic lands (with, by pure coincidence, Serbian Slavs being in control of it), which would in all encompass much of the Balkans and Russia. The fact that most of that land actually belonged to other countries at that time was a minor technical difficulty. Serbia's relations with other countries in 1914 were thus:
- Serbia regarded the Austro-Hungarian Empire in much the same way as Iran or Syria views Israel today. Serbia saw Austro-Hungary as a prison for all Slavs who lived within its borders, felt that Austro-Hungary had no right to exist, and was entirely hostile and antagonistic towards their larger neighbour to the north.
- Serbia and Russia had a common bond of ethnicity: both were controlled by Slavs. And so Serbia looked to Russia as their main ally. This didn't mean that Serbia actually
liked Russia, but they saw the value of having a friend who was even bigger than the local bully.
2. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was a hodgepodge of different regions and ethnicities and cultures. The only commonality held by the people of the Empire were that they were all in the Empire. Though there were over a dozen major ethnic groups, only the ethnic Germans and Hungarians had any influence. For over six decades the Empire had been ruled over by Emperor
Franz Josef. Franz Josef saw himself as a defender of the "old ways", and violently opposed any form of government reform (or reform in general) during his reign. This was unfortunate, as his total unwillingness to make changes or compromises led to severe unrest among the unrepresented ethnic groups. By 1914, the Emperor had to keep the military on full alert constantly to keep rioting and civil unrest in check. Austro-Hungary's relations with other countries in 1914 were thus:
- Austro-Hungary did not get along with Serbia. They saw Serbia as a rallying point for the discontented Slavs in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. They also recognised Serbia's total belligerence towards them, and were more than willing to reciprocate it. Austro-Hungary felt that a severely beaten and weakened Serbia was essential to stability within their own country.
- Austro-Hungary also wasn't very friendly with Russia. For one thing, Russia was just a really big powerful nation with more manpower than all the rest of Europe combined. Up to this point in its history it hadn't often used its resources well, but in 1912 the Russian Tsar started a program of modernisation of the military. . .including increases specifically in Russia's ability to launch offensives towards the west. This did not reassure its western neighbours, Austro-Hungary and Germany. Furthermore, Russia had somewhat vague dreams similar to those of Serbia: a unified Slavic state incorporating Russia, Serbia, and the other lands of Eastern Europe inhabited by Slavs (although as opposed to the Serbian plan, the Russians felt that
Russian Slavs ought to govern it all instead of Serbian Slavs). Since some of those Slavic lands were part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was less than reassured as to Russia's peaceful intentions.
- Austro-Hungary and Germany were buddies. For one thing, ethnic Germans were one of the two ruling groups in Austro-Hungary. So there was a "blood bond". Also, Germany and Russia had historically been rather antagonistic towards each other (with conflicts going back over a thousand years, to the time of
Alexander Nevsky and before), and so by being friends with Germany the Austro-Hungarians had a powerful ally to check any Russian advances.
3. The Empire of Russia was the giant of Europe. The British Empire was larger overall and probably had more people in total, but no European power had quite so much land, resources, and manpower all concentrated in one area. Russia had the potential at the time to dominate the world. Luckily for the world, Russia was a mess. In the mid-1800's, Russia was literally only just dragging itself out of a self-imposed Medieval-style society. Russia had had one of the harshest examples of serfdom and some of the most antiquated systems in all Europe, and the ugly aspects of that were still being felt in the start of the 20th Century. The large population was largely unhappy. The military was plentiful but outdated. The resources were available, but the means to tap them were lacking.
Tsar Nicholas II was trying hard to bring Russia up to modern standards, but the situation was rather bleak. Especially with those pesky Communists popping up all the time to harangue the masses. . .
- Russia and Serbia didn't really like each other, but they had common interests and so worked together. They had a bond of both nations being predominantly Slavic, and both had aspirations towards uniting the Slavs of the world. Russia also saw Serbia as being strategically important: it was a small independent nation serving as a sort of buffer amongst the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, and Ottoman Empires. Keeping Serbia alive and feisty would help keep those other two big empires from bothering Russia; if Austro-Hungary, for example, were to attack Russia, then the rabidly anti-Austrian Serbia might take advantage of the Austro-Hungarians being occupied on their eastern borders and make an attack into the Austro-Hungarian heartland. So Russia looked down on Serbia and basically considered them to be a pack of noisy uncouth upstarts, but they were noisy uncouth upstarts with some use.
- Russia and Austro-Hungary didn't get along all that well. For one thing, they had a long history of broken alliances and failed joint efforts; the two societies just couldn't seem to ever work together effectively. Also, Russia wanted some of the land that Austro-Hungary owned, and Austro-Hungary wasn't about to hand it over.
- Russia was extremely distrustful of Germany. Xenophobia is somewhat ingrained in Russia, and is especially strong towards the Chinese and the Germans. And this xenophobia is rather strongly justified by the long, long history of Chinese and German invasions of Russia and massacres of Russians. Russia and Germany had distrusted each other so much for so long that even in the event of there not being any reason for distrust, they'd still distrust each other because it was traditional.
- Russia and France tended to get along well, except for when guys named Napoleon Bonaparte intent on world domination led France. In 1914 France was led by a guy named Poincaré, so relations were good. France had helped Russia on its centuries-long struggle to become part of the modern world, and French influence was strong in the social centers of Russia. Furthermore, the French were probably the only other people who thoroughly hated the Germans more than the Russians did, so the French
must be good people!
4. The German Empire was the new kid on the block of European power politics; before the 1870's, the term "Germany" was simply a vague term for a region of separate squabbling small nations in central Europe. Forty years before the start of World War One, the Germanic kingdom of
Prussia managed--through politics, guile, and occasionally military force--to unify all the little Germanic states into one large political entity: the German Empire. This sudden appearance of a new, large, populous, highly-industrial, and very militaristic nation on the European stage startled and alarmed much of the rest of the continent. And sure enough, Germany quickly showed off its military abilities by kicking the French around and starting to colonise lands in Africa and Asia. By 1914, the German Empire was one of the (if not
the) overall strongest militaries in Europe, or even the world. And with an enormous manufacturing capability, a moderately large population, and the need to prove itself to the rest of the world, Germany was a very energetic and important power.
- Germany got along well with Austro-Hungary, for the most part. Both nations were heavily populated by ethnic
Germans, with the same language, culture, and suchlike. They also shared a distrust of Russia, and realised that working together they could thwart Russia better than they could working alone. Furthermore, Austro-Hungary had been a buffer between Central Europe and the various invading Asiatic Hordes since the Mongols and the Muslims first moved against Europe. A strong and happy Austro-Hungary would take the brunt of any future invasions from Asia, and spare Germany from being ravaged. A good deal for Germany! Also, if Austro-Hungary were to fall apart then it might turn into just another extension of the Balkans. And having
that sort of squabbling noisy fractious neighbour on your border is not an appealing notion.
- Germany distrusted Russia due to historical reasons. Plus, Russia's plan to update its military and its offensive abilities was for some reason rather poorly thought of in those lands where those offensive military abilities were most likely to be used. Besides, those Russians were dirty icky Slavs, not noble heroic Germans. They probably had cooties or something.
- Germany didn't get along with France. Germany had memories of France messing around with them in the
Thirty Years' War. Germany also had memories of kicking France around in a lot of more recent wars, which resulted in the increase of Germany's size at the expense of France's.
5. France was, well, France.
- France tended to get along with Russia and sort of considered itself to be Russia's godmother. Many lucrative trade and other treaties had been made with Russia, and Russian nobility often came to France on holiday. France and Russia also both distrusted Germany, and by working together they could intimidate Germany by looming as a threat on two sides simultaneously. Hopefully, the dangers and difficulties of fighting a war on two completely separate fronts would be enough to keep Germany in line.
- France despised Germany. Germany was a new, loud, boorish, uncouth nation, and, well, it was Germany. Besides which, those rotten Germans had had the effrontery to not only go to war against the noble and chivalrous French, but to
win and take some prime land from France in the process!
Those were the main players in the opening phases of the war, and some of the relations between them. There were, of course, many other likes, dislikes, treaties, suspicions, and the like all at work. For example, there were all manner of incredibly complicated trade treaties and trade-related reasons for the various countries to get along or want to go to war with each other. But this gives a sort of general idea of who was doing what.
The most commonly pointed to "cause" of the First World War was the June 28th assassination of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by the Austro-Hungarian Serb Gavrilo Princip.
Gavrilo Princip was a Bosnian Serb, a Slav.
Bosnia at the time was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and Princip wanted to destroy that empire and bring freedom and liberty and happiness and light and laughter and free beer and cute cuddly puppies and whatever else to the Serbs there.
He wasn't confident enough to try acting on his own, though. So he went to the obvious place to find pro-Serb and anti-Austro-Hungarian assistance: the Kingdom of Serbia. There, Serbian government and military officials provided him and several other agents with guidance, guns, bombs, and assistance in crossing the border into Bosnia.
In a rather ironic twist of fate, the target for assassination was probably the person who was the best hope for the Slavs.
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the nephew of Emperor Franz Josef. While Franz Josef was a hardcore conservative who refused to make the slightest reform no matter how urgent or necessary, Franz Ferdinand was a model of unconventionality. He married a commoner, scandalising his relatives. In fact, he and his uncle pretty much hated and despised each other.
Another unconventional notion of Franz Ferdinand's was that some reform was needed to keep the nation from exploding. He saw that all the ignored and slighted ethnicities were angry and dangerous, and that if the status quo was held on to by the government then shortly there would no longer be a government in existence. Secretly, Franz Ferdinand drew up plans to break up the Austro-Hungarian Empire into a sort of confederation of states. German-dominated Austria would be its own state in the western part. The Hungarians would have their own state. The Slavs in Bosnia would have their own autonomous state. And so on, for each of the ethnic regions. While he was still hoping to maintain at least nominal control over the whole confederation, Franz Ferdinand realised that it was better to lose some power than to lose all of it. Under his plan, independence for the Slavs in Austro-Hungary was a real possibility, and it would happen in a neat, orderly, well-managed, planned series of steps without bloodshed and destruction.
All that was needed was for Franz Josef to die or step down from office so that Franz Ferdinand could become Emperor. Everybody thought that this would happen pretty soon. The official portrait of Franz Ferdinand as Emperor had already even been painted and was waiting to be hung on the wall.
Then Austro-Hungary would see some serious reform!
And then on the 28th of June, 1914, Princip shot and killed the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. Almost immediately, all of Europe. . .did nothing much. People chatting at dinner parties agreed that it was shocking and disgraceful, but that was about it. Ministries were not abuzz with the news. Kings and Presidents were not rushed off to urgent briefings on the situation. Armies didn't start sharpening their swords and oiling their axles. For most of the world, the assassination was social news, not political. The only government to take action on the matter was, as one would expect, the Austro-Hungarian one. . .and their action was to breathe a collective sigh of relief. After sixty years of rule, Emperor Franz Josef had naturally stuffed every possible government position with functionaries who agreed with his own policies, and thus overall the government had not been delighted with the Archduke's plans for reform. The Emperor himself several times stated that the death of the Archduke was a relief and a blessing. Princip's bullets had in fact killed off the mood for reform and put the conservatives more squarely in control than ever before.
This didn't mean that the Austro-Hungarians were going to call for a vote of thanks directed at the assassins, of course. The conspirators
had murdered a high-ranking member of the Austro-Hungarian aristocracy in an attempt to overthrow the government. That sort of activity could not be tolerated. And so somebody had to be thoroughly punished. But who?
Well, the conspirators were Serbs. And everybody knew that the Kingdom of Serbia supported assassination and terrorism in Austro-Hungary. So even before the conspirators themselves gave evidence showing that Serbia had aided them, there was little doubt as to where the true masterminds of the plan were. Serbia, decided the Austro-Hungarians, had to be dealt with.
There was a catch, however. While the Austro-Hungarians felt that they could pretty much annihilate Serbia on its own, taking on both Serbia and the Russian Empire simultaneously would be a different matter. Russia was
big. At this point the Russian military was only partway through it program of modernization and reorganisation, but it still contained an incredible number of soldiers. Even if they were armed with nothing more than pointy sticks and rocks, the Russian army would be formidable.
So before a course of action was decided on regarding Serbia, Russia had to be considered. If war with Serbia was likely to end up with Austro-Hungary facing Russia as well, then a very stern lecture would be the most that Austro-Hungary could give to Serbia. But what they wanted was a full-scale war and invasion. Was that possible?
Well, first they had to consider Russia's situation at the time. As stated before, Russia was still in the process of upgrading its military. It wasn't scheduled for completion until at least 1917. Also, the Communists and other groups were causing all manner of internal problems in Russia; it was deemed likely that Russia wouldn't dare send its army off to war because it would be afraid that the revolutionaries would then take over back at home. Besides which, Russia's imperial family would surely be disgusted by the assassination of another noble, and would be unwilling to appear supportive of such things happening. So the Austro-Hungarians decided that Russia wouldn't be likely to go to war in defense of Serbia unless the potential of a Russian victory seemed likely, quick, and easy.
The Austro-Hungarians decided to take one more step to be sure that such a Russian victory would be none of the three. They sent word to their friend Germany, asking for German support.
At the time, Germany didn't sense anything important in the air. The German government was going about business as usual. Many of them, including the Kaiser, were actually getting ready to go on holiday. So when the Austro-Hungarian ambassador came asking for German support, the German foreign ministry didn't even bother to check to see what actions they were being asked to support. And so on the 6th of July, Germany gave Austro-Hungary their word that they'd have German support for whatever actions Austro-Hungary did. It was, in effect, a blank cheque. The Germans expected nothing more from the Austro-Hungarians than a lot of political maneouvering and the like against Serbia.
The Austro-Hungarians, on the other hand, took the German assurances to mean that Germany was happy to go to war on behalf of Austro-Hungary. And since Germany had a big, powerful, accomplished military, surely Russia would not dare to attack Austro-Hungary! Serbia could be safely invaded, and the war would remain solely between Austro-Hungary and Serbia. It would be a nice, small, neat, manageable war and would finally put Serbia in its place and secure the future for Austro-Hungary. Anything else would be craziness!
The Austro-Hungarians, therefore, set about starting a war. On the 23rd of July, they sent a very, very rude ultimatum to Serbia. It was designed to be as utterly degrading and impossible for Serbia to accept as possible, but just in case Serbia
did agree to everything in it the Austro-Hungarian ambassador was ordered to deem
any Serbian response unacceptable. While the exact consequences of failing to accept the ultimatum were not described, there was no real doubt to anyone what they would be.
Now shockwaves rocked the governments of the world. This wasn't some silly aristocrat being murdered. This was practically a declared intent of war, in the midst of a continental powderkeg.
Serbia read the ultimatum and saw how degrading and impossible it was. Then Serbia looked across the border at the big Austro-Hungarian army that was slavering hungrily waiting to be unleashed. It was decided that perhaps a bit of help was called for. Serbia called up Russia and explained the situation. Russia thought for a bit. Clearly, Austro-Hungary was planning to go to war against Serbia in the immediate future. Austro-Hungary
knew that Russia would find that unacceptable, and that an annoyed Russia would not be a good thing for the future prosperity of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. So clearly the Austro-Hungarians had reason to believe that they had a more than compensating military advantage. And the only such advantage possible was an assurance from Germany that German troops would support Austro-Hungarian ones. Obviously, Germany was planning to finally carry out its cherished invasion of Russia!
Germany, meanwhile, was equally shocked. Those crazy Austro-Hungarians were going to attack Serbia? But the Russians would retaliate! Then they remembered the blank cheque that they'd given to the Austro-Hungarians, where they'd promised to support them
whatever they did with whatever means needed. Obviously, the Austro-Hungarians were taking that to mean Germany was ready and willing to fight the Russians. Oops. And equally obviously, the Russians were likely to be now preparing for war with Austro-Hungary and Germany.
And what, Germany wondered, about France? Well, France had close ties with Russia, especially in matters of working against Germany. France was still really angry about having lost a big chunk of land to Germany during the
Franco-Prussian War of 1870; in fact, France had lost a whole series of wars against Germany in the not-too-distant past. Everybody knew that France was just looking for a chance to strike back. And Germany being caught in a fight with a monster like Russia would be just that chance. So France was suddenly raised from a minor concern to an imminent threat.
And in France, the reasoning went much the way it had in Russia. Austro-Hungary was going to invade Serbia? Germany must be getting ready to go all militaristic again, in collusion with Austro-Hungary! They'll probably try to take more of our land! And so France was stirred up, too.
This time period is known as the July Crisis.
Now, it's quite true that well prior to this time there had already been a spirit of suspicion, belligerence, and warmongering all throughout Europe. It was no secret that France wanted to go to war against and defeat Germany and thus regain some territory lost in previous wars. Everybody knew that Germany wanted to go to war against and defeat Russia, thus ensuring that Russia was kept too weak to be a threat. And it was well known that Russia wanted to go to war against and defeat the Austro-Hungarians, and thus gain some of the lands in the Balkans region.
The key phrase in the above paragraph isn't "go to war against", however. It is "and defeat". Nobody was wanting to start a war that they would lose. And each nation realised that the war they wanted was extremely risky at best and would result in staggering losses even for the victor. For example, France wanted to take back its lost land from Germany, but France also acknowledged that Germany's larger population and industrial base would make it impossible for France to win such a war. So while everybody wanted
a war, they wanted it on their own terms at a later time of their own choosing. Nobody wanted
the war that actually happened then and there. Nobody was ready for it.
But due to all the open hostility mentioned above, nobody judged themselves able to afford
not to get into that war once it started. Germany
knew that France wanted to invade, and that the situation seemed to be a good time for France to make the try. So Germany had a choice: either stand down and risk being caught unprepared by a French attack, or to strike first and try to catch the French unprepared and on French land (it's a maxim of war that it is best to fight the battles on the enemy's land rather than on your own, so that the enemy has to clean up the mess). With matters of a national scale like that, governments can't really gamble and take risks. And so each nation in turn decided that the path of least risk was to attack those who they knew wanted to attack them. It was no longer seen as a matter of alliances, it was seen as a matter of national survival. Basically, Serbia, Austro-Hungary, Russia, Germany and France all entered the war
believing that they were acting on the defensive. Serbia was a victim of Austro-Hungarian aggression. Austro-Hungary was a victim of Serbian attempts to overthrow it. Russia was a target of Austro-Hungarian and German militarism. Germany was being threatened by Russian invasion and by France wanting revenge. And France saw itself about to lose more land to Germany. And so everybody decided to strike first.
Austro-Hungary got in the first shots. On July 28th, in spite of Serbia actually agreeing to eight of the ten terms of the ultimatum (knowing that they had Russian support, the Serbs decided to not agree to the two most embarrassing demands), Austro-Hungary invaded Serbia. The next day Russia started readying its army for war. The day after that, Germany did the same. And France followed suit the next day.
And after that, things just keep on rolling. More nations got involved for various reasons, until eventually Belgium, Serbia, France, Russia, Britain (including Australia, India, New Zealand, South Africa, and Canada), Italy, Romania, the United States, Montenegro, Japan, Portugal, Greece, Albania, Brazil, Armenia, Czechoslovakia, Finland, Nepal, Siam, San Marino, China, Andorra, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Liberia, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay were all at war with Austro-Hungary, Germany, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria. To see when who all declared war on who else, you can see a
nice list here.